Gulf oil exports excluding Iran recovered to more than 81% of pre-war levels in September, led by a sharp rebound in Saudi Arabian shipments, although refined fuel exports remain significantly below normal.
Oil flows from Gulf producers rebounded strongly in September, reaching an average of 19.2 million barrels per day, compared with 23.6 million barrels per day before the war began on February 28, 2026.
The figures cover shipments of crude oil, condensates and refined fuels from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain, while excluding Iran.
Saudi Arabia drives the recovery
Saudi Arabia was the main force behind the rebound.
Its crude and condensate exports climbed to about 6.6 million barrels per day in September, a significant increase from August levels and enough to offset weaker exports from several other Gulf producers.
The improvement comes despite persistent security risks affecting Gulf shipping routes and energy infrastructure.
Regional producers have increasingly relied on alternative export routes, pipelines and adjusted shipping patterns to reduce dependence on vulnerable maritime corridors.
Crude exports recover faster than fuels
The recovery has been uneven across different petroleum products.
According to Vortexa data cited by Reuters, crude and condensate exports recovered to around 91% of pre-war levels, while refined fuel shipments remained at only about 60%.
That gap remains important for global energy markets because products such as diesel and jet fuel are still in tighter supply.
Export routes adapt to regional conflict
Gulf oil exporters have changed how they move energy supplies since the conflict began.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE have made greater use of pipelines and alternative terminals, while ship-to-ship transfers and other routing strategies have also helped maintain exports despite disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
Separate Kpler data showed Gulf crude exports exceeding pre-war averages on several days in late September, reaching between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day.
Recovery remains fragile
Despite the improvement, analysts remain cautious.
Daily oil flows are still considerably more volatile than before the conflict, raising questions over whether September’s stronger export levels can be sustained over the coming months.
Impact to expect
The rebound could ease some pressure on global crude supplies, but continued weakness in diesel and other refined fuel exports means energy markets may remain tight and vulnerable to further shipping disruptions.
